Unpacking the June 2023 JOLTs Report: Key Trends and Takeaways in the U.S. Job Market

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTs) report, released in August 2023, provides a wealth of data on the current state of the job market. Here, we delve into the key trends and takeaways from the June 2023 report.

1. Job Openings: The total number of job openings decreased from 10.96 million in June 2022 to 9.58 million in June 2023. This suggests a decrease in the demand for labor over the year. The job openings have seen a slight decrease across most industries compared to 2022.

2. Industry-Specific Trends: There was an increase in job openings in the healthcare and social assistance sector and state and local government (excluding education). Conversely, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities, as well as in state and local government education and the federal government.

3. Regional Differences: The Northeast and West regions saw an increase in job openings, while the South and Midwest experienced a decrease.

4. Hires: The hiring rates have remained relatively stable across most industries, with a slight increase in the construction sector. The South region leads in hiring rates, followed by the West, Midwest, and Northeast.

5. Total Separations: Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations, have slightly increased in the construction and professional and business services sectors. The South region has the highest total separations rate, while the Northeast has the lowest.

6. Quits: The quit rates have remained relatively stable across most industries, with a slight increase in the construction sector. The South region has the highest quit rate, while the Northeast has the lowest.

7. Layoffs and Discharges: Layoffs and discharges have slightly increased in the construction and professional and business services sectors. The South region has the highest rate of layoffs and discharges, while the Northeast has the lowest.

8. Other Separations: Other separations have slightly increased in the construction and professional and business services sectors. The South region has the highest rate of other separations, while the Northeast has the lowest.

9. Establishment Size Class: For establishments of different sizes, the trends are similar. Larger establishments (1000 to 4999 employees) have seen a slight decrease in job openings, hires, and total separations. Smaller establishments (1 to 9 employees) have seen a slight increase in job openings and hires but a decrease in total separations.

In conclusion, the job market in 2023 is slightly less active compared to 2022, with fewer job openings and a stable hiring rate. The South region leads in job openings, hires, and separations, while the Northeast region has the lowest rates. The trends vary by industry, with construction and professional and business services seeing an increase in separations.

A Fresh Spin on the CPI: The Impact of New Weights on 2023 Data

Hello, economic enthusiasts! Buckle up because we're about to dive into the exciting world of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Yes, you heard right - exciting!

In January 2023, the BLS implemented a substantial modification to their CPI calculation process. Previously, the CPI weights were updated biennially, based on two years of consumer spending data. The new methodology, however, employs a single year of consumer spending data to update the weights annually. This shift enhances the timeliness of the CPI, making it a more accurate reflection of recent consumer behavior and current economic conditions.

Category	Time Frame	% Change (New Weights)	% Change (Old Weights)
All Items	1-Month (Jan 2023)	0.80%	0.79%
All Items	3-Month (Mar 2023)	1.70%	1.63%
Food and Beverages	1-Month (Jan 2023)	0.71%	0.70%
Food and Beverages	3-Month (Mar 2023)	1.23%	1.24%
Energy	1-Month (Jan 2023)	3.05%	3.34%
Energy	3-Month (Mar 2023)	1.51%	1.50%
Housing	1-Month (Jan 2023)	0.97%	1.02%
Housing	3-Month (Mar 2023)	1.86%	1.74%

The question that naturally arises is: what is the impact of this change on the CPI values? Our analysis of the data provides some insightful observations:

The new weights have a relatively minor impact on the CPI values and percent changes for most categories. However, certain categories exhibit notable differences. For instance, the Energy category showed a 1-month percent change of 3.05% with the new weights in January 2023, compared to 3.34% with the old weights - a difference of 0.29 percentage points. The Housing category also displayed a variation, with a 1-month percent change of 0.97% with the new weights and 1.02% with the old weights in January 2023. By March, the 3-month percent change for Housing was 1.86% with the new weights and 1.74% with the old weights.

While these changes may appear small, they are significant in the context of economic indicators. Even minor shifts can have substantial implications for our understanding of the economy. The BLS's change in methodology, therefore, is a crucial development that warrants close attention.

We will continue to monitor and analyze these changes in the CPI calculation process and their impact on economic indicators. Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis and insights into the world of economics and data.

Unpacking the June 2023 CPI Report

Welcome to our latest economic update, where we decode the numbers to bring you the key takeaways from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2023. Let's dive into the data and see what it tells us about the current economic climate.

1. The Steady deceleration of the CPI: The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. This follows a 0.1% increase in May, indicating a steady slow down in consumer prices. Over the last 12 months, the all items index has slowed to 3.0% before seasonal adjustment.

1. Shelter and Insurance Lead the Way: The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70% of the rise. The index for motor vehicle insurance also made a significant contribution. These sectors are key drivers of the current inflationary trend.

2. Food and Energy Dynamics: The food index increased by 0.1% in June, while the energy index rose by 0.6%. However, the index for food at home remained unchanged, indicating a divergence in the cost trends for eating in and dining out.

3. The 12-Month Perspective: Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 3.0%. This is the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2021, suggesting a slight cooling off in inflation. The energy index decreased by 16.7% over the same period, while the food index increased by 5.7%.

In conclusion, the June 2023 CPI report paints a picture of a steady rise in the cost of living, albeit at a slower pace, with shelter and insurance costs making up a bulk of the month’s rise. The 12-month trends suggest a possible easing of inflationary pressures. As always, we'll keep a close eye on these trends and what they mean for you. Stay tuned for our next economic update!

June 2023 Jobs report: employment up by 209,000

Here are the key details from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report for June 2023:

1. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 3.6 percent.

2. Employment continued to trend upwards in government, health care, social assistance, and construction sectors.

3. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.

4. The unemployment rates for different demographic groups showed little change over the month. For instance, the unemployment rate for Whites declined to 3.1 percent in June, while the rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.0 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.2 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) remained relatively stable.

5. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.1 million, accounting for 18.5 percent of the total unemployed.

6. The labor force participation rate was 62.6 percent for the fourth consecutive month, and the employment-population ratio was 60.3 percent.

7. The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 452,000 to 4.2 million in June.

8. The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.4 million in June, little changed from the prior month.

9. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $33.58. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4 percent.

10. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in June.

11. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 77,000, from +294,000 to +217,000, and the change for May was revised down by 33,000, from +339,000 to +306,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.

Dig deeper:

1. The total civilian labor force in June 2023 was 166,951,000, with an employment level of 160,994,000 and an unemployment level of 5,957,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6%.

2. Total nonfarm employment increased by 209,000 in June 2023, with private employment contributing 149,000 to this increase. Government employment increased by 60,000.

3. The unemployment rates varied across different demographic groups, with the rate for Whites at 2.9%, Blacks or African Americans at 6.2%, and Asians at 3.0%. The unemployment rate for the Hispanic or Latino population was 4.2%.

4. The unemployment rate also varied based on educational attainment, with those holding a Bachelor's degree and higher experiencing the lowest rate at 2.2%.

5. The unemployment rate for veterans varied based on the period of service, with Gulf War-era II veterans experiencing an unemployment rate of 3.5%.

6. Persons with a disability had an unemployment rate of 7.3%, while those without a disability had a rate of 3.3%.

7. The native-born population had an unemployment rate of 3.4%, the same as the foreign-born population.

8. The total number of wage and salary workers was 147,063,000, with 130,577,000 working full time and 16,486,000 working part time.

9. The total number of persons who usually work full time was 130,577,000, and those who usually work part time was 28,262,000.

10. The total number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks was 2,056,000, while those unemployed for 27 weeks and over was 932,000.

11. The total number of women on nonfarm payrolls was 73,530,000.

12. The average weekly hours for all employees was 34.4, and the average hourly earnings for all employees was $30.40.

13. The total number of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 125,761,000, with an average weekly hours of 33.7 and average hourly earnings of $28.83.

14. The total number of persons who currently want a job was 5,710,000, and the total number of discouraged workers was 321,000.

15. The total number of multiple jobholders was 7,616,000, and the total number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was 4,062,000.

16. The index of aggregate weekly hours for all employees was 114.2, and the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for all employees was 233.5.

17. The index of aggregate weekly hours for all production and nonsupervisory employees was 122.4, and the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for all production and nonsupervisory employees was 235.8.

Navigating the Short Squeeze: An Investment Strategy Guide

The world of investing is filled with a myriad of terms and strategies, one of which is the 'short squeeze'. It's a term that has gained prominence among retail investors since 2020, particularly with the GameStop saga that shook Wall Street. But what exactly is a short squeeze, and how can you use it in your investment strategy? Let's explore.

What is a Short Squeeze?

A short squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted stock experiences a sharp price increase, forcing short sellers to close their positions by buying back the stock. This rush to buy even more shares adds fuel to the price increase, creating a 'squeeze'.

Short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them in the hope of buying them back at a lower price, are betting on the stock price to fall. However, if the price rises instead, they face potentially unlimited losses as they have to buy back the shares at the higher price. The higher the short interest (the total number of shares sold short), the more intense the squeeze can be.

The Mechanics of a Short Squeeze

A short squeeze typically starts with a positive catalyst that pushes the stock price up. This could be strong earnings, a new product announcement, or even a surge of interest from retail investors, as was the case with GameStop.

As the stock price rises, short sellers start facing losses. If the price rise is significant, some short sellers may decide to cut their losses and exit their positions. They do this by buying the stock, which increases demand and pushes the price up even further.

This can trigger a chain reaction. As more short sellers buy the stock to cover their positions, the price rise accelerates, causing even more short sellers to capitulate. This feedback loop can cause the stock price to skyrocket in a very short time.

Using Short Squeezes in Your Investment Strategy

While short squeezes can be risky, they also present unique investment opportunities. Here are a few strategies:

1. Identifying Potential Short Squeezes: Look for stocks with high short interest. These are potential candidates for a short squeeze, especially if they have strong fundamentals or positive news on the horizon.

2. Timing is Key: Timing a short squeeze can be challenging. It's important to monitor the stock closely for any signs of a price increase and be ready to act quickly.

3. Risk Management: Short squeezes can be volatile, and prices can drop as quickly as they rise. It's crucial to have a risk management strategy in place, such as setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.

4. Patience and Discipline: Not every stock with high short interest will experience a short squeeze. It's important to be patient and stick to your investment strategy.

In conclusion, while short squeezes can be risky, they also offer unique opportunities for investors who understand their mechanics and are prepared to navigate their challenges. As always, thorough research and careful risk management are key to successful investing. Happy investing!